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Only a few years ago climate was equal parts apocalypse and salvation…
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A Three-Way View of…
And then the world refused to sort itself so neatly. Oil demand hit record highs. A shale boom turned the U.S. into the largest…
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Source: U.S. Energy…
What followed wasn’t the end of climate action but the start of something more consequential and less tidy. The emerging…
The shorthand of “petrostate vs electrostate” is not wrong – but it is only…
It's a whole-of-economy reordering where electrons, semiconductors, magnets, batteries, grids, and software on top — the electro…
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Total US energy…
This is why alumni of Tesla have gone on to found or scale some of the most innovative firms of the energy transition—…
When consumer products become the training ground for industrial systems, the boundary between the market and the state…
This can already be seen across the geopolitical map: China integrated the electrification value chain end-to-end — mining,…
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Global electronics…
How did this happen? The background story is fire. For two centuries, modern life was organized around combustion: coal, oil,…
The Stack
First, photovoltaics. They shattered fire’s monopoly by capturing energy directly,…
Energy learning curve pricesSource: Our World in Data…
Second, semiconductors. As Chris Miller argues in Chip War, chips have become a hidden input into almost everything that…
Average battery cell priceSource: Our World in Data…
Fifth, rare-earth magnets. 90 percent of rare earth magnets are processed in China — and the electro-stack was complete. If…
Five quiet innovations — better magnets, better transistors, better batteries, better semiconductors, purpose-built chips —…
This wasn’t just an accident of the market; this was deliberate state policy. When Xi Jinping took over the Chinese Communist…
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China's overlapping…
The New Joule Order
China developed The Stack through industrial strategy while the United…
The United States did not simply watch industry leave; it replaced it with two different engines of growth. On the coasts, Big…
Energy investors increasingly talk about a “New Joule Order”: an age where the organizing principle of the global system is no…
Europe, by contrast, had no shale miracle to lean on. On the eve of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the European Union…
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Share of world…
While Europe now faces a thicket of regulatory approvals, cautious capital markets, and fragmented fiscal authority, the United…
The climate zeitgeist that peaked around 2020 now looks to narrow.
Batteries, too, are diversifying. Sodium-ion packs are already entering commercial markets; solid-state cells promise step-…
The hierarchy runs from China at the commanding heights, through fast-electrifying importers, through Europe’s partial successes…
Seen this way, the emerging global map clarifies. China is the paradigmatic electrostate — both producer and consumer —…
Combined and Uneven Electrification at War
If energy transitions redraw military power, this…
The current & future prize: mastery of the electro-stack — semiconductors, batteries, magnets, photovoltaics, electrolyzers…
Here, however China dominates again. The Chinese consumer drone manufacturer, DJI holds three-quarters of the global consumer…
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Fragmentation, Not Globalization
For decades, global integration – of trade, politics,…
Combined and uneven electrification doesn’t make climate irrelevant. It makes climate part of a larger logic: power, in all…
And in a fractured world, those choices don’t unfold on a single timeline. As Shell’s energy-security scenarios make clear,…
Innovation & The New Prize: The Stack
What many of today’s debates still miss is the…
A call to action
If The Stack sparked your curiosity about…